©04 the media desk
It's been a long hot stupid summer on the campaign trail.
The most popular catchphrase is "Battleground State" which seems to mean almost every state except the candidate's home state. With the difference in the polls still in low single digits and even dead even in some samples, not only does every vote count, every vote cast in November will have cost the candidates several dollars each.
The outpouring of bile and recriminations is astounding. As is the amount of facts being debated, or rather, the lack of facts and objective analysis as well as nothing that could even act like an actual debate on a TV sit-com.
The issue being thrown back and forth is this: Who Lied The Most.
Neither of the two main candidates has been one hundred percent truthful about anything except perhaps how much the other guy is lying.
Bush has worked over the truth about Iraq's weapons several times. Kerry has fabricated almost everything he ever said about anything in his life, including Viet Nam, his Senate votes, and his use of Botox during the primaries.
Both sides are using outside organizations (called 527 Groups for the loophole in the tax code, and who use very very soft money to fund election activities) to push attack ads (Bush has the Veterans, Kerry uses Move On and several others). And both are taking money by the wheelbarrowload from special interest groups.
And the election is still TOO CLOSE TO CALL. Every major poll has one or the other ahead by a narrower amount than the margin of error for the survey. Usually three points.
The Desk did survey of probable voters locally and found the same thing.
But some common answers ran along these lines:
"I really don't WANT to vote for either one, but …" Then they'd pick one or the other.
In its very unscientific poll, the Desk has Bush ahead by about five to three, with several people saying they would rather vote for somebody else. Anybody else.
One of the more humorous parts of this election is how far to the center Kerry has backflipped on some issues since the convention.
On his vacation he made a big deal out of his going out shooting. In direct contrast to the 'no guns, no way, no how' far left liberal ranting of the far left. He's also zigged and zagged on the Iraq situation in last few weeks. Stating that he'd stay in Iraq and do it right instead of the pullout he had talked about.
Just as much fun is to listen the big media's pro Kerry talking heads who are actively campaigning for him on the network news shows when they try to explain away these changes in his stands on whatever the issue is today.
Of course there are those that will accuse W of being the master spinner when it comes to issues, almost as good as Clinton still is. And Bush has had to spin some things, it's just a fact of life in the White House now, especially with the Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. Anybody who has any grip at all on reality knows that Saddam either had them, or he was scratching and scampering to build or buy them. No argument. And the ones he had are still out there someplace, probably in Syria or Saudi Arabia. But, the fact that we haven't uncovered an armed and ready nuclear warhead or an airplane with spray tanks full of VX gas or something means people like Teddy Kennedy can say Saddam was a nicer guy than any Sunday School Teacher in Boston. Never mind the mass graves and all that.
As for political fallout either way of all the spinning and flipping from W and Kerry, we'll just have to wait and see.
If W picks up any convention bounce, which was almost non-existent with Kerry, he could stay just ahead or basically even in the polls until election day. And that's when the deal will go down.
The Desk sees a slight advantage for W when the voters actually walk into the booth and have to face pushing the button that says John Kerry. "Do I really want HIM to be president?" Maybe they'll vote for him before voting against him.
Either way, the election is liable to be close enough to be disputed once again. Anything except a double digit win by either one is going to end up in court just like 2000.
Which the Desk loves to watch, but it is not good for the country.
And that is what the election should be about. Who will be the Best Thing For The Country?
Right Now. Looking at Labor Day 2004, the Election is still W's to loose.
He has a lot of silent support and there are a lot of people who simply don't trust Kerry more than they don't trust Bush. Give this choice, they'll stick with W. Will these numbers be enough to overcome the built in support of the hardcore Democrat groups such as some unions and black churches whose members will support the Dem nominee no matter who or what it is?
Well, here goes. The margin has narrowed and W is no longer the heavy favorite, but the Desk still has to go with W, and maybe take something just under 3 to 1 for, maybe we could score it like the Olympics, 2.73 to 1.02 for W.
As for Nader and the other 'also rans' including whatever the Libertarians have dried out enough to run for them. Not a snowballs chance in hades and No Odds for the win. Most Likely, Nader will siphon off some support from Kerry, maybe enough to make the nut for W.
[note: presented as entertainment only, don't sue the Desk if you loose money betting in Vegas on these predictions.
further note: the media desk has never voted for a winning presidential candidate although it votes in every election. also the desk is registered as a 'independent conservative libertarian' thank you]