©05 The Media Desk
And once we think about it, he never really went away did he? The whole time the rest of us were wondering where John Kerry stood on any given issue Doctor Howard Dean was in the background, schmoozing with Democratic Party high rollers and ensuring he'd have a gig for the next few years.
And it worked.
He's going to run the Democratic National Committee.
now just as to where he'll run it is an open question
And then, don't look now. But he's liable to make a run for the Presidency in 2008.
So… Here we go.
Just as the pregnant chads have been swept up in Florida and the last starving lawyer has left Columbus, Ohio we have
Right off the bat, the Governator- Schwarzenegger, is off the ticket. Nobody is seriously in favor of changing the constitution for him.
Cheney can't be considered a real contender for a variety of reasons. Leading the Desk's list is the contention that he most likely really doesn't want the job, period.
Jeb Bush has been mentioned several times, but given the Kennedy Brother History there's a serious Albatross hovering around him just waiting to perch. We'll put him back in the pack with the other 'well, maybe's.
McCain is very likely, but he's been around a long time and has a lot of baggage. And there's a really poor track record for Senators making the jump. Pack horse as well.
Same goes for Bill Frist of Tennessee, except he's got name recognition problems.
Former NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani. Has a lot of name recognition and is very popular in the Northeast. And he's spent the last couple of years making sure he's not forgotten. Also comes into the hunt with a possible warchest that will put him ahead of almost everybody else. Could move to favorite in about 2006, but there is a question about staying power.
Condoleezza Rice would be an awesome running mate. But at the top of the ticket? well….Why not? Especially against Hillary. THAT would be a dream campaign.
And then there is always talk of Colin Powell. And he's said he doesn't want the job.
Then there's the kook brigade which includes everybody from Rush Limbaugh to Richard Petty. They'd make the first Republican Debate interesting wouldn't they? But that's about the end of that discussion.
So Right Now, the Day of the 2005 State of the Union Address, the Republicans really don't have a leading candidate for 2008.
But neither do the Dems…. Other than Hillary.
The list begins and ends with Mrs. Clinton. She is the odds on favorite and her announcing will knock half the others out of the race and cripple the rest. Since she has a campaign committee in place with who knows how much money under her bed for it, she's already campaigning and leads in every poll that is taken seriously.
John Edwards is campaigning as well. He's even been making speeches that sound just like campaign speeches, maybe he didn't get enough practice last year. Anyway. His theme seems to be "Let's not screw it up this time" as he works to shed the waffles left sticking to his tour bus from the 2004 fiasco with Kerry. He looks like Hillary's only serious competition for the nomination. One or the other might make a VP deal for an endorsement of the other one. Either way, it'd be a very powerful ticket with solid Liberal roots and backing.
As was said before, Dr. Dean simply will not go away. He's going to run, he's going to make a lot of noise, and he will most likely get trounced in the primaries by Hillary.
Of course Kerry and even AlGore are also on the Dem list. But as for why, nobody will ever know. And we have good proof that nobody really cares. At least not at this point. It would be fun to watch them scuffle over the nomination as to who'd be on top of the ticket, but then again, maybe it wouldn't. These two will be first to fall when Hillary comes out.
The rest of the list looks like a who's who of has been's or old flames with everybody from Evan Bayh to Dennis Kucinich and General Clark still being talked about. They'll be talk show fodder up to about the summer of '07, then they'll be forgotten about.
Yes Joe Biden and several other more or less rancid old pols (Barbara Boxer for one, Dick Durbin for another) from the Senate are dusting off plagiarized speeches and pondering a run at it. They'll go away as well when She announces.
As for Bright Shining Lights of Hope for the Dems… Barack Obama is about it. The charismatic young man from Illinois came basically out of nowhere to walk into the US Senate with a admirable majority. Could he translate that into a White House run? Well, maybe in '12 or '16, not in 2008. Given that he's only 44 or so, he's got plenty of time to plan, as long as he doesn't develop any of those problems that so plague other young notables once they hit the national stage.
And on this side of the aisle we have our wacko squad as well. Except this list includes about half of Hollywood including Howard Stern, Bill Cosby, and Michael Moore. They might not get any further in the campaign than Rush, but they'll get better press.
Which brings us back to Hillary.
Dems: Hillary. 5 to 2 for. Favorite.
John Edwards: 4 to 2. Against all comers.
Kerry, Clark, Kucinich, Dean and etc. 5 to 1 against. The Pack.
Republicans: Almost the whole list is a Pack at 4 to 1 against. Without a 'Hillary' what passes for the high ground hasn't been staked out yet.
Giuliani, Rice, McCain: may be the closest thing to a favorite they've got. 3 to 1 for if any of the three come out swinging. With the former Mayor having a slight edge in money and organization.
Colin Powell could be a deal breaker if he starts sniffing the air. But that's unlikely.
General: Hillary is the favorite going in. 3 to 1 against all comers. Right now, it is her race to lose. And she isn't even officially running yet.
Countdown to Election- Three Years, ten months.
[NOTE: The Desk is registered as a Conservative Independent Libertarian. It has never voted for a winning candidate in any major election, although it votes in every major election. thank you]
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